Most San Diego homes have no chance of selling
Monday, December 15, 2008 at 02:10PM The inventory of homes for sale on the MLS continues to drop. Some of this is seasonal, but in the face of homeowner distress and rising numbers of foreclosed homes, this drop seems large to me. Our inventory is down 21% year over year!
We hit a peak of 22,785 homes for sale in September 2006, and have fallen ever since. Our inventory was 19,669 in 9/07, and 17,527 in 9/08. Last December, we had 4000 more homes for sale.
As of today, we have 15,409 homes for sale.
Almost half are short sales, so they are effectively ignored by buyers. The number of short sales keep rising.
Less than half of the homes for sale actually have a chance of getting a buyer. About 2,200 listings are $ 1million or more, which are also ignored because few can afford them with today's lending terms. Only 63 sold in that price range last month, giving us a 34 month supply. Of homes priced $700K or more, we have a 23 month supply (3500 homes, 150 sold). Even $700K is too high for most folks. The move-up buyers is thus also gone, hurting the plus-$1 mil market.
The number of homes that have a chance of selling, because they are not short sales and they are priced under $700,000: 6,100 homes.
So while our inventory of homes for sale keeps falling, the component of that inventory that buyers don't want or cannot afford, keeps rising. No wonder multiple offers are so common! The buyers are going after the same few-thousand homes that are affordable and are not short sales.
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Reader Comments (2)
"The number of homes that have a chance of selling, because they are not short sales and they are priced under $700,000: 6,100 home"
I am surprised that anything over $417K has much chance of selling given the median income levels.
Ron, you are right. There is a higher months supply on the more expensive homes.