Irvine Foreclosure Map
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Sample of Orange County Premium Content: The Secret of OC Sales
Orange County monthly sales High prices squashed the move-up or move-down market in Orange County in the past few years. In a healthy housing market, some families will move up to larger homes, while others downsize after the kids move out. That did not happen.
Sales in Orange County were lower than in our last housing boom. Even though this boom lasted longer, driving prices higher due to 100% negative amortization lending and stated income products, monthly sales fell short of the 1980's housing boom. The chart to the left shows sales for all homes, resale and new homes.
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What is most striking, is that a rising population should increase our monthly sales. 
OC sales per population
If we account for the population increase, the lower sales are even more obvious.
It has been 15 years since we reached a level of monthly sales that was greater than 20 sales/10,000 people.
Some anecdotes make clear what is happening. John and Sue bought a 1200 sq ft $220K starter house in 1997, and had 3 kids along the way. Their income has gone up after a few raises and they can now afford a larger mortgage. Their house is now worth $800K, giving them plenty of equity if they sell. But if they move up, they need more than $300K which is 3x as much as they would have needed to move up a decade earlier. Worse, the taxes on that move-up house are now double what they would have been for that same house just a few years earlier. They can't afford to move.
Meanwhile, Sue's mom has seen her equity triple and is cashing out and leaving OC. She is one of the 46,000 people who left last year.
OC Blogs
OC Renter
shocking stories of flippers and mortgage fraud
OC Prudent Bears
debunks the idea of rising house prices in Los Angeles and Orange County
OC Register
great blog by reporter Jon Lansner
Irvine Housing Blog
a duo blogs about neighborhoods, foreclosures, flips, and more in Irvine
The Rancid Truth
OC Country real estate housing blog
Forum
Orange County Forum
OC forum on CA Housing Forecast
Inteview with REO Agent Staci Treloggen in Orange County
Trouble in paradise? Did we think that prime properties are immune to foreclosure? Let's take a look at Newport Beach.
This $1.4 mil house just 3 blocks from the beach is an REO; the agent is Staci Treloggen, an REO expert, with over 20 years in real estate. She has an REO team that works throughout southern CA, and contacts with the major lenders. If you are in the market for an REO, she knows the business well, as I found out when I contacted her today. (949) 487-0811.
This $975K house in San Clemente is also in foreclosure, an REO. The agent is Staci again. I did a search for foreclosures with photos, and she is one of the few agents who took the time to put up photos on her REOs. I like agents who go the extra step like this.
Staci explained that each lender has different rules on disposing of REOs. First, the REO must be vacant before the house can be sold, and this often involves evicting the former owner, a process than can take several months. Next, she as the agent must resolve repairs, gets prices from at least 2 appraisers and realtors, and send all to the bank's asset manager for review. One major lender does not require appraisals at all, and uses the average of two opinions to set the list price. Once all this is done, the house can be listed. She got 20 properties just a few weeks ago, and is busy now getting them ready for sale.
The property market is still healthy enough that banks are not resorting to auctions. When they do, they tend to use large auction houses, such as Wilson and Wilson, companies which handled bank auctions in the 1990s are are gearing up again.
Lenders are getting more lenient with foreclosures and short sales, according to Staci. Still, 65% - 70% of workouts end back in foreclosure. That pretty much throws a monkey wrench into any theory that the foreclosure rate will be minimized by lenders working with the borrowers. I think the bottom line is that people have just taken on too much debt.
Foreclosures are no longer limited to the lower end market. They are rippling through the country to all price levels. For example, I quickly browsed foreclosure.com for +$ 1mil listings in Orange County today (2/21/07). Often, a borrower goes in and out of pre-foreclosure status, and in and out of foreclosure status. Staci told me that even when the bank helps the borrower with a work-out plan, that is not a solution: 65% - 70% of the workouts go back into foreclosure
Sample of foreclosures
$ 1.75 mil, Fullerton, Morelia Pl (active)
$ 1.126 mil, Huntington Beach, Delaware St (active)
$ 1.04 mil, Laguna Niguel, Country Lane Rd (inactive)
$ 1.895 mil, San Juan Capistrano, Via Mambrino (inactive)
$1.054 mil, Santa Ana, Baja Panorama (active foreclosure)
Orange County currently has 491 foreclosures, 2,861 preforeclosures, 1,754 bankruptcies, 42 for sale by owner (FSBO), 7,134 tax liens, 0 auctions, according to foreclosure.com.