California Housing Forecast

In the last downturn, prices fell 25%, according to the data. For those who lived in the OC during that time, what happened? How far will prices fall this time? Do you think the higher wages in OC vs. San Diego will keep up prices?

I bought my first home in 1988 (westminster),scraped together 10% down on 1000 sq ft sfd, and got the owner to carry a 10 second loan my father agreed to buy from him shortly after closing. Banks wouldn't touch me and I got burned my my mortgage broker who stuck me with a bad deal at closing. My 144K that had been a rental for years appraised at 195K when I redid the loan for 4K in 1990.I paid down the mortgage principle with $100 extra each month and after many years of depressed prices the market turned and I sold at 193K in 1998, after redoing most everything in the house myself. I moved up to a 1700sq ft
Huntington Beach house now with my 20% down from the Westminster house sale, and I have avoided mortgage brokers ever since. I sold this house in 2003 for 493K after a bigger house down the street sat without a buyer at 535 for 6 months, expired and then immmediatly sold at 515K. The previouse sale of my model had been 470K. I discovered last night the same model (albeit with a pool) sold for 699K in 2005 and again for 811K in 2006 (bigger fool). Now similar models list for 750K or less. Is there a bubble in Huntington Beach 92646, 92647 sells for considerably less? I found a few listed 600K, about what they sold for in 2005.

luvscalcab, are you a homeowner or renter? What's your prediction for OC prices?

DOWN at least 15% in the next 12 months! I believe prices will fall 25% or more within 2 years.

Yes, I hope so too.

Cown 5% to 10% per year for 5 to 8 years. Maybe worse if the CDO market implodes.

I am selling a 5 plex for 1.15 mill with a tax basis of 300k and loan of 440k. Would you suggest paying capital gains or doing a 1031 exchange?

I would ask my CPA. Nice deal!

I'm a homeowner in Anaheim, and paid off my house about 9 months ago. I'm boogled as to why prices went so high and who is affording these houses in Orange County. I'm predicting at leat a 30% decline in prices and am hoping for more. What kind of society do we live in where the average working family can't afford to buy a house? I'm am opposed to any kind of bailout for homeowners. I feel this will artifically hold prices up. Let it crash and let's move on!

There is way too much economic data out there. This is just the start. I predict 10-15% decrease per year for the next 2-5 years. What goes up must come down. You will really start to see the bulk of foreclosures in 2 years.The rise of inventory, worried buyers, tightening credit standards, and foreclosures will add up. Don't try to catch a falling knife.

I think it will fall really fast now. With only $417K conforming loans and jumbos to only high FICO borrowers, home prices can no longer be based on a whim and a prayer, but on actual wages, that must be proven. Geez, what a concept.

Prices will drop 30% in just a few months, if the credit markets stay tight.

Many sellers will go off the market, but banks and relocations have to sell. They will set the price for everyone. Just let's all hope we still have our jobs.