California Housing Forecast

We used to hate River Park for its Mello Roos and inflated price, but now single family houses, like in Pacific Crossing and Westerley, are selling for 100K less than just a few months ago. We are taking a second look at those houses around 2,000SF for $440-$460K. I have heard about River Park's flood question and El Rio's gang/crime problems.
Should I buy now or wait? What's the pro and cons of River Park?

Dear Dandelion,

Here is a blog I wrote about the RiverPark development last year. Yes there are some real expenses with living in this development that include Mello Roos and Oxnard City taxes.

My experience has been that these are nicely built homes at very competitive prices even with the additional add-on expenses.

My daughter attends High School at El Rio and we have found their programs for college bound students to be outstanding. There are some possible new developments for students as well which include El Rio High becoming one of only two High Schools in Ventura County (Newbury Park High is the other) to qualify for an international student accelerated learning class this year. It should be fully instituted by next year.

Gangs are a problem in Oxnard, but there have been some very effective law enforcement initiatives taken in the last few years to cripple their influence.

RiverPark has it's own school, fire department and is building some shopping areas as well.

In order to address the flooding issues, I would recommend you contact the City of Oxnard Public Works Department, FEMA for flood plain maps at www.FEMA.gov or http://www.floodalert.fema.gov for a list of insurance companies that offer flood insurance in your area. You can find additional commments on flooding issues in my latest blog on my personal website http://www.markthorngren.com.

Should you buy now or wait. I'm a realtor. I'm supposed to say buy now. No, not really. I was just seeing if I could get a rise out of Schahrzad. Let's look at each possibility.

Buy later....or Buy now.
Home prices will most likely continue to fall for months if not years yet. My personal bet is some areas will turn around before others. Unless you know your neighborhoods intimately, you may have difficulty recognizing when it begins to happen. According to local title information (Land America Lawyers Title - Tom Piszczek - (805) 302-8667) home prices in Oxnard have gone down over 34% from March'07 to March '08, and 16% in Camarillo over the same time frame. Those are some pretty big numbers.

I always do a Comparative Market Analysis of my own for my clients. This is a one year look at a very specific neighborhood for any property my clients are interested in making an offer on. I find price trends, comparative home sale prices and listing information to base the offer or sale price for sellers and buyers needs.

Let us say that home prices continue down for at least another year. During the year we may see the buyers continue to take advantage of this market. Some of these folks are investors who are very savvy to our local markets.

In January my clients purchased a home listed for $600K in a neighborhood with a $604K median price. The sellers were motivated and my buyers made an offer for $450K plus $8,000 in closing costs. It was accepted! That is a 25% price reduction - almost a full years price drop right now!

Those are the kinds of deals that can happen in today's market. Does it always happen like that? No, but such a thing was unheard of a year ago. Will that type market last another year? Impossible to say.

Mortage programs are much more strict but progress has been made through FHA and CalHFA to make 100% financing still available to qualified first time home buyers. Very competitive rates are available through FHA for most other well-qualified individuals.

You should have yourself pre-approved with a lender you trust before you go looking for a home. If you don't know what you can afford, you are wasting your valuable time. Also,most realtors are not going to spend a lot of time driving people around at $4.00/gallon if they don't know what they are qualified to purchase or what program best fits their personal needs.

Get several Good Faith Estimates from different lenders and tell them what you are doing. Make them compete for your business! Watch you expenses and fees shrink as they try to lure you their way. Make sure the good faith estimates include pro-rated taxes, Title and Escrow fees. It is not uncommon to receive Good Faith Estimates that look very competitive until you realize they don't include all the normal expenses for your transaction. Ask your competing lenders to explain any differences in competing Good Faith Estimates. Sometimes your realtor can give you and idea of what is really happening as well.

FHA comforming loan limits have been raised from $417,000 to roughly $729,000 until December 31 of this year. There is great pressure being put on Congress to extend this deadline and it may indeed be extended. Hasn't happened yet but might. If it doesn't, FHA limits will probably default back to $417,000 next year. There are not very many single family detached homes available in California for less than $417,000.

We have no idea what interest rates will do over the next 12 months. That is a very fundamental gamble if you are undecided about when to buy. A very small interest rate change can have an immense effect on the interest you pay over 30 Years. That should be a concern to more people than just home prices.

I think you must give attention to your personal needs as well. There are many, many homes to pick from today. About 11 1/2 month supply in Ventura County. I looked online Thursday and saw that Oxnard - alone, had 1201 homes for sale.

This is a buyers market. It will continue to be a buyers market for months to come. When it changes, it will change gradually and at different times in different towns and neighborhoods. You won't easily see the change until you are past it. That is my thought on today's market. What do they say about a bird in the hand Dandelion?

Warmest Regards,
Mark Thorngren
http://RealtyTimes.com/REUv/MarkThorngren or http://www.markthorngren.com
(805) 504-0228

Oxnard – Riverpark – 1,800 homes along the Santa Clara River

The largest new home development currently being built in Oxnard is Riverpark There are 15 different home plans by my count, located just North off the 101, along the banks of the Santa Clara River. HOA’s vary by neighborhood, by square footage and by builder. Standard Pacific Homes is currently marketing the Celadon tract. Their HOAs can run from less than $100.00 up to nearly $300.00. There is also a 30 year Mello Roos which is about 1.1% but it is combined with a city special tax assessment. Agents in the development have told me to just multiply the Sale Price x 1.9 to get a rough idea of the combined total. Add the HOA and you will come close to your monthly fees. The HOA in the homes built by Standard Pacific Homes includes outside maintenance, landscaping and lender insurance – typically fire. Add these to your mortgage payment for your monthly housing costs. This does not include all utilities or your personal property insurance. Even with all the added costs, the homes tend to be very competitively priced with more floor space than I would expect. In one case that I know of, a home was offered for 70K below market with a special 6% give back at close of escrow. It was the last home in the tract and had fallen out of escrow previously. This was a nicely upgraded home in a nice location. Good things can happen. Call them to find out what is currently available or I can check for you if you prefer.
Shea Homes is offering the Market Street Tract of luxury townhomes. Plans 1 – 4 range in price from 486K for 2,362 sq ft to 545K for 2,631 sq ft. HOAs are up to $292 for Phase 2. This covers the Riverpark master association dues ($32) with the balance for Fire and Casualty Insurance of the building and exterior maintenance of the building. There is a property tax rate of 1.15% of the sale price, plus a Mello Roos Tax Assessment of $4,587 per year.
Several other tracts are still under construction. They have a new school opening there this Fall. There are very nice websitesq at http://www.riverparklife.com/ or www.standardpacifichomes.com or www.SheaHomes.com.
The tract names are:
• Celadon
• Destination
• Luminaria
• Market Street
• Promenade
• The Avenue
• Tradewinds
• Trellis
• Westerly
• Collage
• Meridian
• Morning View
• Veranda
• Waypoint
• Daybreak

Mark has summed it up really well, about the declines yet to come, the variations in the markets in terms of turning down and up (coastal is last to fall, first to rise for example), and that lending is fairly loose if you look at higher limits and 100% financing for FHA. We had 140 FHA sales last month.

This is where I disagree on interest rates: since it's all about the monthly payment, any rise in interest rates NECESSITATES a lower home price.

If I were even thinking of selling, I would make sure I sold BEFORE
1. Interest rates rise, thus shutting out more buyers and forcing me to lower my price
2. More foreclosures increase the supply of homes. As Chris Thornburg was quoted in the NC Times today, nothing is more pernicious to prices, than a high supply.

Good to see you guys stopped drinking the spring Koolaid.

When can subscribers expect a Ventura County Housing Market?

Thanks,

Robert